Odds of a US High School Athlete playing Pro Sports:
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| MLB | NBA | NFL | MLS | WNBA | NWSL | |||||||
| Odds of a US High School Player: | ||||||||||||
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| Making any College roster: | 8:1 | 17:1 | 11:1 | 12:1 | 14:1 | 10:1 | ||||||
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| Making an NCAA I roster: | 43:1 | 110:1 | 33:1 | 108:1 | 81:1 | 41:1 | ||||||
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| Making a Pro Roster: | 829:1 | 1,920:1 | 554:1 | 1,344:1 | 3,086:1 | 1,435:1 |
Methodology & Notes:
| Baseball | Odds | Basketball | Odds | Football | Odds | Soccer | Odds | Basketball | Odds | Soccer | Odds | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US High School Players | 511,383 | | 1:1 | | 538,446 | | 1:1 | | 1,023,908 | | 1:1 | | 454,324 | | 1:1 | | 382,419 | | 1:1 | | 390,108 | | 1:1 | |
| US College Players | 63,573 | 8:1 | 31,514 | 17:1 | 96,368 | 11:1 | 36,562 | 12:1 | 26,935 | 14:1 | 41,267 | 10:1 | ||||||||||||
| US NCAA I Players | 11,867 | 43:1 | 4,894 | 110:1 | 31,005 | 33:1 | 4,226 | 108:1 | 4,702 | 81:1 | 9,486 | 41:1 | ||||||||||||
| US Pro Players * | 858 | 829:1 | 342 | 1,920:1 | 1,645 | 554:1 | 283 | 1,344:1 | 116 | 3,086:1 | 283 | 1,435:1 | ||||||||||||
| Pro League | MLB | NBA | NFL | MLS | WNBA | NWSL |
Adjustments to arrive at the odds of a random US high school athlete making a pro roster include the percentage of international players and the average pro career length for each sport. This is necessary to make a valid comparison with the base data of 4 years of US high school participants:
| * Pro Players 2020 | MLB | NBA | NFL | MLS | WNBA | NWSL | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # of Teams | | 30 | | 30 | | 32 | | 26 | | 12 | | 9 |
| Roster Limit | 40 | 15 | 53 | 28 | 12 | 22 | ||||||
| Total Pro Players | 1,200 | 450 | 1,696 | 560 | 144 | 198 | ||||||
| Foreign Player % | 24% | 29% | 3% | 49% | 19% | 18% | ||||||
| # of US Players | 858 | 342 | 1,645 | 283 | 116 | 162 | ||||||
| Avr Career (years) | 5.6 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 3.2 | ||||||
| Adj US Players (4 years) | 613 | 285 | 1,880 | 354 | 133 | 203 |
